**Germany Is Still Europe’s Anchor — But It’s Starting to Drift**

Germany used to be the adult in Europe’s room: fiscally disciplined, industrially dominant, politically boring in the best way. In 2024, that reputation is cracking. The country isn’t collapsing — let’s not be dramatic — but it *is* stuck. And when the EU’s biggest economy is stuck, everyone else feels the drag.

My take: **Germany’s biggest problem isn’t the recession, the energy transition, or even the far-right AfD. It’s indecision.** Too cautious to reform fast, too proud to admit its old model is breaking.

### The Economic Engine Is Sputtering
Germany’s economy shrank again in 2024 (about -0.2%), marking a second straight year of contraction. That’s not a blip — that’s a trend. Manufacturing, especially autos and heavy machinery, is getting squeezed by cheaper Chinese competition, high energy prices, and sluggish global demand.

For decades, Germany ran the same playbook: export high-end goods, rely on cheap energy (hello, Russian gas), and keep wages restrained. That model worked brilliantly — until it didn’t. Russia invaded Ukraine, energy costs exploded, and suddenly Germany’s “safe” dependence looked reckless.

Berlin’s response? A lot of committees. Some subsidies. Very little urgency.

### Energy Policy: Morally Confident, Practically Messy
Germany shut down nuclear power in 2023 — a move that still divides experts. Yes, renewables now make up nearly 60% of electricity generation. That’s impressive. But growth has slowed, grids are strained, and industry is paying among the highest power prices in the world.

The result is a paradox: Germany wants to lead the green transition, but risks deindustrializing in the process. Steel, chemicals, and auto firms are quietly investing abroad. Climate virtue doesn’t mean much if your factories leave.

### Politics: The Center Weakens, the Extremes Feast
When the economy stalls, voters get angry. Enter the far-right AfD, now polling around 20% nationally and even higher in eastern states. This isn’t just a protest vote — it’s a warning sign.

The ruling coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) has spent more time fighting internally than selling a coherent vision. Meanwhile, the AfD keeps its message brutally simple: elites failed, immigrants are to blame, Germany needs to “take back control.” It’s wrong — but it’s effective.

Germany’s postwar stability was built on prosperity and consensus. As both erode, so does the political center.

### The Bottom Line
Germany isn’t doomed. It’s still rich, skilled, and influential. But **the era of coasting is over**. The country needs faster infrastructure buildouts, cheaper energy for industry, smarter immigration, and — above all — political clarity.

If Germany keeps hesitating, it won’t just lose momentum. It’ll lose authority in Europe. And once that happens, the EU’s “engine” won’t just sputter — it’ll stall.

The question isn’t whether Germany can adapt.
It’s whether it can do it *before* voters decide to burn the system down instead.

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